Over the past few million years the reversal rate is estimated as

PHYSICS · Subjective · Fermi University Physics · Mathematical Methods for Physics · Earth, Climate & Energy Physics · The solid Earth: structure, fields and thermal history

The Solid Earth, Ch The geomagnetic field: potential, spectrum, induction and the palaeomagnetic record

Problem

Over the past few million years the reversal rate is estimated as νr=4.5 Myr−1\nu_r = 4.5\,\mathrm{Myr^{-1}}. Treating reversals as a Poisson process with this constant rate, calculate the probability that a polarity interval lasts at least 0.6 Myr0.6\,\mathrm{Myr} with no reversal, and state the assumption this calculation relies on.

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