Carbocation Rearrangements in Addition
Add HCl to 3-methyl-1-butene and something strange happens. Alongside the "expected" Markovnikov product, a second compound also forms. In it, the methyl branch has vanished from its original carbon. It reappeared one carbon over, and the chlorine moved with it. No new atoms arrived, none left. The skeleton itself relocated a substituent mid-reaction. This is not a side reaction or an impurity. It is the carbocation obeying the same stability logic that governs everything else in Hydrohalogenation Mechanism. It is just applied one step further than beginners expect. Carbocation rearrangements matter because they reveal something important. Markovnikov's rule is a consequence of a deeper principle, not the principle itself. The real rule is this: protonation (or any ionization step) generates the most stable cation accessible. That cation will keep evolving — including migrating a hydride or an alkyl group — until it reaches the most stable species reachable by a low-barrier step. Regiochemistry is decided by cation stability all the way through the mechanism. It is not decided just at the moment of protonation. Once you internalize this, several things become predictable rather than mysterious. "Anomalous" products in electrophilic additions, in Friedel–Crafts alkylations, and in pinacol rearrangements all fit this logic. So do the carbocation intermediates of Acid-Catalysed Hydration. The big picture is orbital-simple. A carbocation is an empty orbital on an carbon. Any bond on an adjacent carbon can donate its electron pair into it. This happens if that bond is roughly parallel to the empty orbital. If the group that migrates is a hydrogen, we call it a 1,2-hydride shift. If it is an alkyl group (with its bonding pair), it's a 1,2-alkyl shift. Both are concerted and intramolecular. Both are essentially barrierless when they convert a secondary cation into a tertiary one. Both proceed with a very specific stereochemical signature. Migration occurs to the face of the empty orbital. This happens with retention of configuration at the migrating group. There is inversion-like backside character at the migration origin. This article works through the orbital picture of hydride and alkyl shifts. It derives the migratory aptitude ordering from cation stability. It also walks through three complete worked mechanisms. These are a classic hydride shift, an alkyl (ring-expansion) shift, and a competition-level double-rearrangement problem. By the end you should be able to look at any secondary or primary cation. You should immediately identify whether it will rearrange, to what, and what product distribution to expect.
- A carbocation rearranges when an adjacent C–H or C–C bond can donate into the empty orbital, forming a more stable cation.
- 1,2-hydride shifts move H with its bonding electron pair; 1,2-alkyl shifts move an alkyl group (R) the same way — both are one mechanistic family.
- Migration requires anti-periplanar-like orbital alignment: the migrating bond must overlap with the empty orbital of the cationic carbon.
- Driving force is the stability order 3° > 2° > 1° > methyl; rearrangement occurs only if it climbs this ladder (or relieves severe strain, e.g., ring expansion).
- Rearranged carbocations react with nucleophile/eliminate exactly like unrearranged ones — giving a second, "unexpected" regiochemical product superimposed on the normal Markovnikov product.
- Key idea: electrophilic addition mechanisms generate the most stable accessible cation at every stage, not just at the moment of initial protonation — rearrangement is Markovnikov selectivity extended in time.
Where this lives today
Carbocation rearrangements are not a historical curiosity confined to textbook alkene additions — they are a live design constraint and, in biosynthesis, a deliberately harnessed tool. In terpene and steroid biosynthesis, cyclase enzymes generate carbocation intermediates from squalene epoxide and then guide them through cascades of precisely controlled 1,2-hydride and 1,2-methyl shifts (the biological echo of exactly the Wagner–Meerwein chemistry above) to construct the lanosterol and ultimately cholesterol skeleton — the enzyme's role is largely to hold the substrate rigid so the same rearrangement chemistry that "ruins" a simple undergraduate HCl addition instead builds a complex polycyclic natural product with complete stereochemical control. Medicinal chemists synthesizing terpenoid and steroid-derived drug scaffolds must respect this same rearrangement logic when designing acid-catalyzed cyclizations. In industrial petrochemistry, Friedel–Crafts alkylation of aromatics and the acid-catalyzed isomerization/alkylation steps in gasoline reformulation (producing branched, high-octane alkanes from linear precursors via carbocation hydride/methyl shifts) depend entirely on steering carbocation rearrangements toward the most branched, most stable, highest-octane-rating products — this is rearrangement chemistry run at refinery scale specifically because the thermodynamic sink is industrially valuable. Synthetic methodology built on semi-pinacol rearrangements, Meinwald rearrangements of epoxides, and Prins-cyclization cascades all exploit the same 1,2-shift mechanism to build rings and set quaternary stereocenters that would be difficult to construct by direct bond formation. And in mechanistic pedagogy, this exact rearrangement logic is the direct bridge to Acid-Catalysed Hydration, where the same protonation-then-cation-capture pathway is run in water instead of HX, and to understanding why some electrophilic additions (via bridged halonium or mercurinium intermediates) are deliberately chosen in synthesis specifically to avoid this rearrangement pathway altogether.
Ask the tutor: In the double-rearrangement example, why doesn't the reaction instead protonate the alkene at the other carbon to avoid forming a secondary cation in the first place?
The physical picture
Picture the carbocation not as a static "C+" but as a planar carbon with a vacant, unhybridized orbital straddling the molecular plane — one lobe above, one below. This empty orbital is a voracious electrophilic site: anything with electron density positioned to overlap it will be pulled in. Ordinarily that "anything" is an external nucleophile (Cl⁻, H₂O, Br⁻) arriving from outside the molecule. But look inside the molecule first. If the carbon adjacent to the cation bears a hydrogen or alkyl substituent whose C–H or C–C bonding orbital happens to lie roughly parallel to the empty orbital, that bond is itself a filled orbital sitting next to a wonderful acceptor. Orbital overlap between a filled (or ) and the empty is called hyperconjugation when it's a stabilizing interaction on a stable cation, and becomes an actual bond-breaking, bond-forming rearrangement when the overlap is strong enough and the product cation is more stable than the reactant cation. Mechanistically the migrating group departs its original carbon with the bonding electron pair (a 2-electron, 3-center transition state: migrating-group···C(origin)···C(cation) all overlapping simultaneously) and lands on the adjacent carbon that used to be positively charged. The carbon that is left behind — the migration origin — becomes the new cationic center, because it has lost a bonding pair to the migrating group. The whole event is a single concerted step: no discrete intermediate exists between "cation A" and "cation B." Because the transition state has the migrating group's orbital bridging both carbons, stereochemistry at the migrating center is retained (it moves with its electrons, never inverting like an SN2 leaving group would), while the new cationic center is generated with whatever geometry places the remaining substituents equatorial to the developing orbital. Whether migration happens at all is a thermodynamic (and, because the barrier is so low, essentially kinetic-and-thermodynamic-aligned) question: does the new cation lie in a deeper energy well than the old one? The stability ladder — tertiary > secondary > primary > methyl, with resonance-stabilized allylic/benzylic cations off the top of the scale entirely — is exactly the same ladder used to rationalize Markovnikov addition in the first place. A secondary cation adjacent to a carbon bearing a methyl group has a route, via hydride shift, to a tertiary cation; it will take that route essentially every time, because the transition state for a 1,2-hydride shift converting 2° → 3° is only a few kcal/mol, often lower than the barrier for the external nucleophile to simply trap the 2° cation directly.
Alkyl shifts follow the identical orbital picture, only now the migrating bond is C–C rather than C–H, and the migrating fragment carries its own substituents along for the ride, which is why alkyl shifts are frequently used deliberately to achieve ring expansion (relieving cyclobutane or cyclopentane ring strain by converting a strained ring cation into a larger, less strained ring cation with one more carbon in the ring and a still-favorable — sometimes even more favorable — cationic center).
The core ideas
Cation stability is set primarily by hyperconjugative and inductive electron donation from alkyl groups, so the relevant energetics can be written as a relative-stability ranking rather than a single formula. Still, the driving force for a given rearrangement step can be expressed thermodynamically:
where:
- is the free energy of the carbocation before migration,
- is the free energy of the carbocation after the 1,2-shift,
- rearrangement proceeds spontaneously (with a low, often sub-5-kcal/mol barrier) whenever , i.e., the new cation is more stable.
Reading it: this is not a rate law to plug numbers into — there is no simple closed-form for cation free energies — but a qualifying condition. You evaluate the sign by classifying reactant and product cations on the stability ladder (3° / 2° allylic-conjugated / 2° / 1°) and asking whether the shift is "uphill" or "downhill." Only downhill (or thermoneutral-but-ring-strain-relieving) shifts are observed as the dominant pathway. The second governing relationship is about product ratio, since in practice you often see both the unrearranged and rearranged products, because trapping of the initial cation by nucleophile competes kinetically with rearrangement:
where:
- is the rate constant for the intramolecular 1,2-shift (unimolecular, hence independent of nucleophile concentration),
- is the rate constant for nucleophilic capture of the original (unrearranged) cation,
- is the nucleophile concentration.
Reading it: because is intramolecular and essentially concentration-independent while trapping is bimolecular, dilute nucleophile (or a nucleophile generated slowly, or one present in low steady-state concentration, e.g. water in a strongly acidic medium) favors rearrangement, while a very reactive, high-concentration nucleophile can sometimes outcompete an otherwise-favorable shift. This ratio is qualitative — real values are hard to measure directly — but it correctly predicts the experimental trend: rearrangement is essentially universal for 2°→3° shifts in HX addition (because trapping by halide is comparatively slow and the shift is nearly barrierless), and can even be seen for 3°→3° "degenerate-looking" shifts when ring strain is relieved.
Goal. Show, with full curved-arrow electron pushing and stereochemical bookkeeping, why protonation of 3-methyl-1-butene by HCl gives two organic chloride products, and derive their ratio qualitatively from the cation-stability argument.
Step 1 — Protonation of the alkene (Markovnikov addition of H⁺). 3-Methyl-1-butene, , presents a terminal, monosubstituted alkene. The electrons of C1=C2 act as the nucleophile toward H–Cl. Two curved arrows: one from the bond to the incoming proton, one from the H–Cl bond onto Cl, expelling chloride. Protonation places H on the terminal carbon (C1) and the positive charge on C2, because that generates a secondary cation, — more stable than the primary cation that would result from protonating C2. This is ordinary Markovnikov selectivity, nothing new yet.
Step 2 — Recognize the adjacent group. C3, immediately adjacent to the cationic C2, is a tertiary-like carbon bearing an H and two methyl groups: . That C3–H bond can align with the empty orbital on C2. Migrating this hydride converts C2 from secondary to a carbon now bonded to three carbons (i.e., a tertiary cation forms at C3), while C2 itself becomes fully substituted with H's and methyls — no longer charged.
Step 3 — The 1,2-hydride shift itself. One curved arrow: from the C3–H bond directly into the empty orbital at C2. This is a single concerted step — the hydrogen moves with its bonding electron pair, forming a new C2–H bond, while C3 loses that bond and becomes the new cationic center. Explicitly:
The right-hand cation is tertiary — bonded to three carbons (two methyls plus the ethyl-chain carbon) — strictly more stable than the secondary cation on the left. Because this step converts 2°→3°, it is exergonic and essentially barrierless at the temperatures HX addition is run at; it proceeds faster than bimolecular capture by Cl⁻ in most cases.
Step 4 — Nucleophilic capture, twice over. Chloride can trap either cation, since the equilibrium/kinetic competition (Step 3 vs direct capture) is not 100% one-sided. Capture of the original secondary cation gives one curved arrow, Cl lone pair to C2, yielding 2-chloro-3-methylbutane, — the "expected" Markovnikov product. Capture of the rearranged tertiary cation gives one curved arrow, Cl lone pair to C3, yielding 2-chloro-2-methylbutane, — the "rearranged" product, in which the chlorine sits on a carbon that was originally CH of the isopropyl group, and the molecular skeleton's methyl-branch position has effectively shifted.
Step 5 — Product ratio and why rearranged product often dominates. Because (2°→3°) is fast and unimolecular, while capture of the metastable secondary cation by Cl⁻ requires a bimolecular encounter, in practice the tertiary chloride is typically the major product, often 60–90% depending on conditions, with the "normal" secondary chloride as minor product. No carbocation mechanism gives 100% clean Markovnikov product here — this is the diagnostic signature that rearrangement has occurred.
Go deeper · Derivation B · 2 minMechanism 2 — 1,2-alkyl (methyl) shift with ring expansion
Goal. Demonstrate an alkyl (not hydride) migration, using addition of HBr to 1-methylcyclopentene-derived neopentyl-type framework — specifically, protonation of 3,3-dimethyl-1-butene, , the textbook case where no hydride shift is available but a methyl shift is, because the adjacent carbon (C3) has no hydrogens at all, only three methyls.
Step 1 — Protonation to the secondary cation. As before, H⁺ adds to the terminal CH₂ (C1), pushing the electrons to form the new C–H bond, and Cl⁻ (or Br⁻) is expelled from H–X. This places the cation at C2:
C2 is secondary. Note carefully: C3, adjacent to the cation, is a quaternary-like carbon bearing three methyl groups and no hydrogen — so a hydride shift from C3 is structurally impossible. But C3 does have three equivalent C–CH₃ bonds available for migration.
Step 2 — The 1,2-methyl shift. One curved arrow: a C3–CH₃ bonding pair swings into the empty orbital at C2. The methyl group departs C3 with its bonding electrons and forms a new bond to C2; C3, having lost a substituent, becomes the new cationic center:
Written out more explicitly: C3, which started bonded to (CH₃, CH₃, CH₃, C2), loses one methyl and keeps (CH₃, CH₃, C2) plus the developing empty orbital — a tertiary cation. C2, which started bonded to (H, C1, C3) and the cation, now gains the migrating methyl and becomes bonded to (H, C1, C3, CH₃) — a fully saturated, neutral carbon. Net: the cation has moved from C2 (2°) to C3 (3°), i.e., 2,2-dimethyl migrating to 2,3-dimethyl framework.
Step 3 — Why alkyl migrates here even though no hydride is available at C3. This example is chosen deliberately: it proves rearrangement is not "H is special" but "whatever bond is available and gives a more stable cation migrates." Migratory aptitude among alkyl groups broadly tracks the ability of the migrating carbon to stabilize positive character developing in the transition state — bulkier, more electron-rich alkyl groups (tertiary > secondary > primary > methyl, and aryl groups even faster via a bridged phenonium-ion pathway) migrate faster, but even a simple methyl shift is enormously faster than leaving a secondary cation untouched when a tertiary cation is one bond-reorganization away.
Step 4 — Halide capture. Br⁻ traps the tertiary cation at C3 (one curved arrow, lone pair to C3), giving 2-bromo-2,3-dimethylbutane as the major, rearranged product. The "unrearranged" product — 2-bromo-3,3-dimethylbutane, from direct capture of the secondary C2 cation — is typically only a minor component, because the alkyl shift here (2°→3°, additionally relieving the crowding of three methyls on one carbon) is strongly favorable and fast.
Step 5 — Stereochemical note on the migration step. Because the migrating methyl carries its bonding pair without inversion (it is not undergoing a backside SN2-type displacement — it slides from one nucleus to the adjacent one on the same face where the empty orbital points), and because C2 and C3 in this particular substrate are not stereocenters, no new stereochemical complexity arises here. In a substrate where the migration origin is a stereocenter, the configuration at that carbon is scrambled (it becomes , planar, in the product cation), while any pre-existing stereocenter on the migrating group itself is preserved intact, since that carbon's bonds are never broken.
Worked examples
Example 1 (foundational): HCl addition to 3-methyl-1-butene — full accounting of both products. Substrate: . Step through exactly as Mechanism 1 above. Protonation at C1 places the cation at C2 (secondary): . A hydride shift from C3 (which bears one H, since C3 is ) generates the tertiary cation , i.e. the 2-methylbutan-2-yl cation. Chloride traps this tertiary cation to give 2-chloro-2-methylbutane as the major product, alongside minor 2-chloro-3-methylbutane from direct capture of the unrearranged secondary cation. As a limiting-case check: if C3 bore no hydrogen (imagine replacing that H with a third methyl, making the starting alkene 3,3-dimethyl-1-butene instead) then hydride shift would be structurally impossible and we would necessarily default to alkyl shift, exactly as in Mechanism 2 — confirming the two mechanisms are unified by the same "most stable accessible cation" principle rather than being independent rules to memorize.
Example 2 (applied): HBr addition to 1-phenyl-1-propene-type system with a migrating group that gives resonance stabilization — predicting product without a pre-existing rule. Consider the alkene deliberately drawn so protonation could occur at either alkene carbon. Protonating the carbon away from the ring (the -bearing terminus, call it C1) places the cation at C2, which is directly attached to the phenyl ring — this cation is benzylic, resonance-delocalized into the ring, dramatically more stable than any simple secondary alkyl cation and already at the top of the stability ladder. No rearrangement is needed or expected: this cation is already more stable than any hydride or alkyl shift could produce, since shifting a hydride away from the ring-stabilized carbon would destroy the resonance stabilization, a clearly uphill (unfavorable) process. Bromide traps directly at C2, giving 1-bromo-1-phenylpropane. This example is included specifically to show the limiting case where the rearrangement machinery, though structurally available (there are adjacent C–H's), is not invoked, because for any shift away from a resonance-stabilized cation. Always check for resonance stabilization before reflexively hunting for a hydride shift.
Example 3 (competition-level): double rearrangement — HBr addition to 2,2-dimethyl-3-pentanol-derived alkene fragment, tracking two sequential shifts. Consider the alkene (4,4-dimethyl-2-pentene numbering: C1=CH₃, C2=CH, C3=CH, C4=C(CH₃)₃-quaternary carbon... let's set it up cleanly as 3,3-dimethyl-1-butene homolog extended by one carbon): take specifically
Protonation with HBr can occur at either alkene carbon; by Markovnikov/cation-stability reasoning, protonate C3 (the carbon nearer the terminus is C1... let's label unambiguously left to right as Ca (quaternary carbon's attached alkene carbon) and Cb): Structure: . Protonating (adding H there) places the cation on , giving a secondary cation adjacent to a quaternary carbon:
This is exactly the Mechanism 2 substrate pattern: the adjacent carbon, , has no hydrogen, only three methyls, so hydride shift is impossible — but a methyl shift is available. One curved arrow: a C–CH₃ bond from the quaternary carbon swings into the empty orbital at :
Check the new cation's substitution: the carbon that was quaternary (bonded to three methyls and ) has lost one methyl and is now bonded to two methyls plus plus the developing empty orbital — a tertiary cation. This is strictly more stable than the starting secondary cation (2°→3°, favorable), so the shift proceeds. Is a second shift now possible? Examine the carbon adjacent to the new tertiary cation on the other side — call it the former , now bonded to (H, CH₃-that-just-migrated, the new cation carbon, and CH₂CH₃'s carbon). This carbon has an available C–H. Could a further hydride shift from to the cationic carbon occur? Evaluate the product: migrating that hydride would move the cation onto , which — after losing an H — would be bonded to (CH₃, CH₂CH₃, the original tertiary carbon, and the empty orbital): also a tertiary cation, but not any more substituted or more stabilized than the current one (both are simple tertiary alkyl cations, no resonance or ring-strain difference). Since for this second, degenerate-in-stability shift, it is not thermodynamically driven and — critically — even though such 3°→3° hydride shifts are occasionally observed as minor, reversible equilibrium processes, the productive, essentially irreversible event is the first 2°→3° methyl shift. Bromide then traps the tertiary cation from the first shift, giving the rearranged bromide
as the dominant product. The competition-level lesson: evaluate every possible subsequent shift by comparing product cation stability, not merely by asking "is a shift structurally possible." A shift that is possible but thermoneutral or unfavorable does not drive the reaction forward as the major pathway.
Limiting cases, scope & common traps
| Situation | Does rearrangement occur? | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Cation is already tertiary, no adjacent group forms a more stable cation | No | for any available shift |
| Cation is secondary, adjacent carbon bears an H and is tertiary-substituted | Yes, hydride shift | 2°→3°, exergonic, low barrier |
| Cation is secondary, adjacent carbon has no H (fully alkyl-substituted) but bears migratable alkyl groups | Yes, alkyl shift | Same driving force, different migrating group |
| Cation is secondary but already resonance-stabilized (allylic/benzylic) | No | Resonance stabilization typically exceeds any hyperconjugative gain from simple alkyl shift |
| Cation sits adjacent to a strained ring (cyclobutylcarbinyl-type) | Yes, ring-expansion alkyl shift | Relief of ring strain adds to (or substitutes for) simple hybridization-stability gain |
| Two sequential shifts both give tertiary cations of similar stability | Usually only the first (kinetically preferred) shift dominates | Second shift is thermoneutral, not strongly driven |
| Nucleophile concentration is very high and highly reactive (e.g. concentrated strong acid with good leaving halide) | Rearranged product fraction can drop | Bimolecular trapping competes kinetically with unimolecular shift |
The chemist behind it
The mechanistic understanding of carbocation rearrangements owes its clearest early articulation to Frank Whitmore, an American organic chemist working through the 1930s who systematized what was, before him, a scattered collection of "abnormal" reaction outcomes — pinacol rearrangements, Wagner–Meerwein shifts in terpene and camphor chemistry, and anomalous hydrohalogenation products — into a single unifying mechanistic principle: electron-deficient carbon centers reorganize by migration of an adjacent group with its bonding electron pair, always toward greater cationic stability. Whitmore's 1932 papers proposing this general mechanism predate much of modern physical-organic instrumentation (there was no NMR, no fast kinetic methods to directly observe the shift), so the argument rested on remarkably careful product analysis: isolating and rigorously characterizing every isomer formed, tracking isotopic labels and skeletal connectivity through classical degradation chemistry, and showing that the same rearranged skeleton appeared regardless of which specific electrophilic addition or ionization was used to generate the cation — powerful evidence that a common cationic intermediate, not reagent-specific chemistry, was responsible. The rearrangements themselves are often still called Wagner–Meerwein shifts, honoring Georg Wagner and Hans Meerwein, whose independent 19th- and early-20th-century studies of terpene skeletal rearrangements (camphene hydrochloride to isobornyl chloride, and related bicyclic systems) first revealed that carbon skeletons could reorganize during simple addition and substitution reactions — decades before anyone had the electronic language of orbitals and cations to explain why.
Origins · 1 minFrank Clifford Whitmore and how this was discovered
Whitmore proposed the general electron-deficient-carbon migration mechanism (1932) that unified Wagner–Meerwein rearrangements, pinacol rearrangements, and anomalous hydrohalogenation regiochemistry under one mechanistic principle, years before the physical-organic vocabulary of "carbocation" (a term popularized later, following Olah's direct spectroscopic observations) was standard.
Do hydride shifts ever move more than one carbon away, i.e., 1,3-shifts?
Direct 1,3-hydride or alkyl shifts are geometrically much harder because the migrating group's orbital cannot achieve good overlap with a orbital two bonds away in a simple open-chain system — the standard mechanism is strictly 1,2-, one bond at a time. What looks like a "1,3-shift" in a product is almost always two sequential 1,2-shifts, exactly as demonstrated in the double-rearrangement worked example, where a methyl shift and a potential subsequent hydride shift were each evaluated as separate 1,2-events. Genuine long-range hydride transfers do exist (particularly in enzymatic and some superacid chemistry, via through-space rather than through-bond delivery), but they are mechanistically distinct from the classical Wagner–Meerwein 1,2-shift discussed here.
How can I tell, just by looking at a starting alkene, whether rearrangement will happen after HX addition?
Draw the initial cation predicted by ordinary Markovnikov reasoning, then explicitly examine every carbon directly adjacent to that cationic center. Ask: does any adjacent carbon carry a hydrogen or alkyl group whose migration would produce a cation higher on the stability ladder (secondary to tertiary, or non-resonance-stabilized to resonance-stabilized)? If yes, expect rearrangement and predict the shifted product as the major species; if the initial cation is already tertiary or already resonance-stabilized with no adjacent group offering further stabilization, expect no rearrangement.
Does Markovnikov's rule still "work" once you account for rearrangement, or does rearrangement break it?
Markovnikov's rule, stated as "H adds to the carbon with more hydrogens," is really a simplified restatement of "the more stable cation forms." Rearrangement doesn't break this — it extends it, because the final regiochemistry is still governed by cation stability, just evaluated one or more steps further downstream than the initial protonation event. The safest modern statement of the rule is: the electrophile adds to generate the most stable carbocation accessible, including via any subsequent low-barrier hydride or alkyl shifts, and the nucleophile ultimately attaches wherever that most-stable cation resides.
Why is a 2°→3° hydride shift essentially barrierless while other organic reactions need real activation energy?
The transition state for a 1,2-hydride shift is a tight three-center, two-electron arrangement where the migrating hydrogen is simultaneously and continuously bonded (in a partial sense) to both carbons throughout the process — there is no need to break a bond fully before beginning to form the new one, unlike, say, an SN1 ionization step which must fully break a C–X bond before any new bonding stabilizes the developing charge. Because the empty orbital is already present and electron-hungry, and because the migrating C–H bond is already positioned with reasonable orbital overlap due to free rotation about the adjacent C–C bond, the energetic penalty is small — often only a few kcal/mol — especially when the thermodynamic driving force (2°→3°) is substantial.
Can alkyl shifts happen without a full carbocation, e.g. in concerted mechanisms?
Yes — this is the basis of semi-pinacol rearrangements and related concerted or nearly concerted processes, where the migration happens in step with (rather than strictly after) the departure of a leaving group or the collapse of a different intermediate, such as in the acid-catalyzed pinacol rearrangement where hydroxyl protonation, water loss, and alkyl migration can be nearly simultaneous, avoiding a fully free, long-lived carbocation. The electronic logic — a filled bond donating into an electron-deficient, developing empty orbital — is identical whether the cation is a discrete, long-lived intermediate or a fleeting transition-state feature.
Why don't alkenes undergoing bromination (Br₂ addition) show these rearrangements, if a cation-like bromonium species is involved?
The bromonium ion is a three-membered ring in which the bromine bridges both former alkene carbons, delocalizing and sharing the positive character across both carbons and the bromine lone pair rather than concentrating it as a fully open, planar -orbital cation on a single carbon. Because there is no single carbon with a fully vacant, isolated orbital available for a bond to donate into, the specific 1,2-shift mechanism described here is geometrically and electronically suppressed — the bridging itself is what "protects" the substrate from rearrangement, and is one of the clearest experimental pieces of evidence that bromonium bridging is real rather than a purely formal bookkeeping device.
Is there a simple test to decide migratory aptitude between two different possible shifts from the same carbon?
Compare the stability of the resulting cations first — the shift that produces the more stable cation dominates overwhelmingly, since the energy differences between cation classes (primary vs secondary vs tertiary, or non-resonance vs resonance-stabilized) are typically much larger than subtle differences in migratory aptitude between similarly-substituted migrating groups. Only when two candidate shifts would produce cations of genuinely comparable stability does the finer-grained migratory aptitude ordering (aryl and hydride generally fast; tertiary alkyl > secondary alkyl > primary alkyl > methyl for alkyl migrations) become the deciding factor, and even then the effect is usually modest compared to the dominant thermodynamic driving force.